John Deere Classic 2026 Weather Forecast: What to Expect at TPC Deere Run

The John Deere Classic returns to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois this summer, the Quad Cities' signature event and one of the most reliably low-scoring weeks on the PGA Tour calendar. Set on bluffs above the Mississippi River, Deere Run rewards aggressive play, and the winning total routinely dips deep into the red. The weather here is classic Upper Midwest summer — warm, humid, and prone to powerful afternoon thunderstorms. Here's what the forecast models are showing and what spectators and bettors should watch for.

TPC Deere Run's Weather Profile

TPC Deere Run sits on rolling, wooded terrain overlooking the Mississippi at the Illinois–Iowa border. Early-to-mid July places it deep in the humid continental summer, when the Quad Cities turn hot and sticky.

Expect daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s°F, occasionally flirting with 90, and warm overnight lows in the late 60s to low 70s. Humidity is the constant companion — moisture streaming north off the Gulf keeps the air thick, which makes the heat feel more oppressive and can shave yards off ball flight. Winds are typically light to moderate, but the region's real weather signature is the afternoon and evening thunderstorm, often arriving in fast-moving complexes that can dump heavy rain in a hurry.

Why Conditions Stay Scorable Here

Deere Run is built for birdies. The fairways are generous, the greens are receptive, and the field attacks. Warm, humid, relatively calm air is exactly the recipe for the 20-under-par leaderboards this event regularly produces.

The weather only bites when storms roll through. Heavy rain softens the course further — somehow making it even more scorable — while gusty outflow winds ahead of a storm line can briefly unsettle the exposed bluff-top holes. But absent a washout, the elements rarely defend par here; the course's design simply isn't built to.

Key Weather Factors for Scoring

Temperature (highs mid-to-upper 80s): Hot and scorable. The ball flies at or above baseline in this warmth, and soft greens hold approach shots well. The bigger temperature concern is player fatigue and hydration across a sweltering week.

Wind (generally light to moderate): Seldom decisive. The wooded, rolling layout shelters most holes, so wind matters mainly on open stretches near the river and in the volatile minutes before a storm.

Rain probability (afternoon/evening storms the main threat): The headline risk. Midwest summer convection can be intense, triggering weather delays and even suspended play. A soaked Deere Run plays longer off the tee but more receptive into the greens.

Humidity (typically high): A persistent factor. Thick Gulf-fed air dulls carry slightly and ramps up heat stress, especially for afternoon groups grinding through the warmest, stickiest part of the day.

Morning vs. Afternoon Draw

The draw matters here chiefly because of storm timing and heat. Morning waves usually get the calmest air, the most receptive greens, and the lowest storm probability — ideal for going low. Afternoon groups battle peak heat, maximum humidity, and the greatest chance of a thunderstorm interrupting their round.

In an unsettled week, a single afternoon washout can hand the clean-weather half of the field a meaningful edge. Watch the radar trends day to day — at a course this gettable, weather luck on the draw can be worth several shots.

Track the Forecast Live

PinWeather delivers hour-by-hour forecasts pinned directly to TPC Deere Run's GPS coordinates — not the nearest airport miles away. Our playability grades, shot-impact calculations, and rain nowcasting give you the most golf-specific weather intelligence available, which matters most when Midwest storms are in the forecast.

Check the live TPC Deere Run weather forecast →

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PinWeather delivers hyper-local golf weather forecasts pinned to the course, not the nearest airport. Available free on iOS and at pinweather.com.