FedEx St. Jude Championship 2026 Weather Forecast: What to Expect at TPC Southwind

The FedEx St. Jude Championship returns to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee this summer, the opening event of the FedExCup Playoffs and a high-stakes test where only the top performers advance. A demanding layout laced with water and protected by Bermuda rough, Southwind plays tougher than the typical summer Tour stop. And in mid-August, the Mid-South delivers some of the most brutal heat and humidity on the entire calendar. Here's what the forecast models are showing and what spectators and bettors should watch for.

TPC Southwind's Weather Profile

TPC Southwind sits on flat ground in the Memphis suburbs, deep in the humid subtropical climate of the Mississippi Delta region. Mid-August here is reliably hot, sticky, and storm-prone.

Expect daytime highs in the low-to-mid 90s°F, with heat-index values often climbing well higher, and warm, muggy overnight lows in the mid 70s. Oppressive humidity is the signature condition — thick Delta air that strains players and caddies and saps ball carry. Winds are usually light to moderate, but the relatively open, water-laced layout lets a breeze play a role, and the afternoon thunderstorm threat is a near-daily fixture in the August heat.

Why Heat and Water Define TPC Southwind

Southwind is one of the tougher venues in this stretch of the season, and the conditions amplify the test. Water threatens on numerous holes, including a demanding finish, and the Bermuda rough is thick and punishing. Layer on extreme heat and humidity, and stamina becomes as important as ball-striking — late in a round, fatigued players make mistakes that the water and rough punish severely.

A breeze over the open holes and water hazards adds another dimension, raising the difficulty of forced carries and exposed greens. Unlike the birdie-fests elsewhere in summer, Southwind tends to produce a more demanding scoring picture, and the heat is a genuine factor in how it plays out.

Key Weather Factors for Scoring

Temperature (highs low-to-mid 90s): Genuinely extreme. While warm air helps the ball fly, the dominant effect here is physical — heat stress and fatigue across four rounds can erode swings and decision-making, especially down the stretch.

Wind (a moderate factor over water): More relevant than at a sheltered course. On the open, water-guarded holes, even a moderate breeze complicates forced carries and approach shots into firm greens.

Rain probability (afternoon storms a daily threat): The primary disruption. Delta-region heat fuels frequent afternoon thunderstorms that can trigger delays or suspensions. A soaked course plays longer but more receptive once play resumes.

Humidity (oppressive): The defining comfort factor. Thick, saturated air dulls ball carry and, more importantly, taxes players and caddies through the hottest hours — a real consideration in a no-cut playoff grind.

Morning vs. Afternoon Draw

The draw matters here as much for survival as for scoring. Morning waves get the (relatively) cooler air, the calmest conditions, and the lowest storm risk — a meaningful advantage when the afternoon turns brutal. Late starters battle peak heat indices, maximum humidity, and the highest chance of a thunderstorm delay.

In a sweltering, unsettled week, the morning half of the field can hold a real edge in both scoring and stamina. Watch the heat-index and radar trends day to day — at a venue this demanding, with playoff advancement on the line, weather luck on the draw can shape who moves on.

Track the Forecast Live

PinWeather delivers hour-by-hour forecasts pinned directly to TPC Southwind's GPS coordinates — not the nearest airport miles away. Our playability grades, shot-impact calculations, and rain nowcasting give you the most golf-specific weather intelligence available, which matters most when extreme heat and afternoon storms are in play.

Check the live TPC Southwind weather forecast →

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PinWeather delivers hyper-local golf weather forecasts pinned to the course, not the nearest airport. Available free on iOS and at pinweather.com.