3M Open 2026 Weather Forecast: What to Expect at TPC Twin Cities

The 3M Open returns to TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota this summer, the PGA Tour's lone stop in the North Star State and a course defined by water — ponds, wetlands, and a famously dangerous closing stretch. Late July in the Twin Cities means warm, humid Upper Midwest summer with a steady undercurrent of thunderstorm risk, and on a layout this exposed to water, even moderate wind can turn the gettable holes treacherous. Here's what the forecast models are showing and what spectators and bettors should watch for.

TPC Twin Cities' Weather Profile

TPC Twin Cities sits on flat, open ground north of Minneapolis–St. Paul, laced with water hazards across a former sod farm. Late July is one of the warmest, most humid stretches of the Minnesota year.

Expect daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s°F, occasionally pushing 90, with warm overnight lows in the late 60s. Humidity runs high as Gulf moisture streams north, thickening the air and adding to the heat. Because the course is open and ringed with water, wind has more influence here than at a tree-lined venue, and the region is a classic corridor for fast-developing afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

Why Wind and Water Define TPC Twin Cities

The signature challenge at TPC Twin Cities is water in play on a host of holes, culminating in a risk-laden finish where the lake guards the closing stretch. Because the layout is flat and largely treeless, wind crosses the property unobstructed — and when it does, those forced carries and water-guarded greens become genuinely intimidating.

A calm day lets the field attack and produces the low scoring the event is known for. But add a 15–20 mph wind over the open water and the math changes fast: approach shots over the lake demand precise distance control, and the closing holes can swing a tournament in either direction. Wind, not the rough, is the course's primary defense.

Key Weather Factors for Scoring

Temperature (highs mid-to-upper 80s): Hot and generally scorable. The ball flies at or above baseline in the warmth, and receptive greens reward aggressive iron play. Heat management across the week is more a stamina question than a scoring one.

Wind (a key variable over water): More important here than at most Tour stops. On an open, water-laced layout, even a moderate breeze complicates the forced carries and exposed greens, and a strong wind turns the closing stretch into a minefield.

Rain probability (afternoon/evening storms the main threat): The headline disruption. Upper Midwest summer convection can be sudden and severe, triggering delays or suspensions. A soaked course plays longer but more receptive, generally keeping scores low once play resumes.

Humidity (typically high): A constant factor. Thick, Gulf-fed air dulls carry slightly and amplifies heat stress, particularly for afternoon waves grinding through the warmest part of the day.

Morning vs. Afternoon Draw

The draw matters here because of both wind and storms. Mornings often bring the calmest air and the lowest storm risk — prime conditions for going low across the water. Afternoons typically see the wind freshen over the open layout and the thunderstorm threat climb, raising the difficulty on the exposed, water-guarded holes.

In an unsettled week, an afternoon storm delay or a freshening wind can hand the morning half of the field a clear edge. Watch the wind and radar trends day to day — on a course where water is always in play, the draw can be worth several shots.

Track the Forecast Live

PinWeather delivers hour-by-hour forecasts pinned directly to TPC Twin Cities' GPS coordinates — not the nearest airport miles away. Our playability grades, shot-impact calculations, and wind modeling give you the most golf-specific weather intelligence available, which matters most when wind crosses the water and storms loom.

Check the live TPC Twin Cities weather forecast →

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PinWeather delivers hyper-local golf weather forecasts pinned to the course, not the nearest airport. Available free on iOS and at pinweather.com.